U.S. Bans Intrade Market Prediction Site

By Stanley JungleibNo Comments

 Revised: 20121130

Intrade has been operating above board under the same regulations since at least 1999, so something happened that the U.S. didn’t like—such as the GOP U.S. Election manipulation that I have reported.

I escaped quickly, unlike those with complex positions who have only a few weeks to fight to the bottom as the internationals take advantage of the fire sale. Many U.S. predictors will be seriously trashed by the U.S. decision. Instead of simply letting existing positions expire, the U.S. closed this market chaotically, forcing liquidation and maximum losses upon its citizens; thus ensuring that Intrade and prediction markets earn the worst possible reputation, and discouraging future participation.

Hysteria over the mere suggestion of the U.S. government’s first floating the idea of wagering on political targets a decade ago is well-known. This action could be connected to recent Intrade movement on the question whether Syria’s Assad will be dethroned by year end 2012 (12%, falling) or by March 2013 (56%, rising). The perception that U.S citizens are profiting by wagers on the fall of Mid-Eastern governments may not be the message it wants sent at these delicate times. Moreover, should the market again prove as subject to manipulation as may have been demonstrated in the Presidential Election.

It seems that the wisdom of crowds from their power to put their money where their free speech is, has now been identified as a security risk. Have we reached the point where networked knowledge aggregation now threatens Intelligence Specialists with competition from the Intelligence of Crowds? Note to crowds: Take the Hint!

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